The AWS Growth Mystery

Key Takeaways

It looks like right now the preliminary street numbers for AWS, you know, have literally 21% growth this year, next year. That makes no sense. Okay, we're published at 30% over the next two years. And I can argue that those numbers could be meaningfully higher than that. So literally, you know, you have kind of like the the sell side who kind of puts out the bogey that just doesn't justify all this level of spending and you have the, you know, kind of the professional investor base, the institutional investors kind of like looking for guidance. So you're saying you're saying that that uh the analysts have have projected low 20% in terms of growth for AWS. You have 30% in in in your projections. >> Correct. >> Why why are you so much more confident? I >> mean, it's kind of math. I mean, you can kind of figure out how much revenue they can generate per gigawatt on an annual basis. They've given you, they said they brought on 1.2 gawatts in the fourth quarter versus one in the quarter before versus 0.9 the quarter before that. They've talked about doubling capacity over two years. So that means 5 gawatts at least next year. Now, there's definitely timing concerns, but unless you think that the revenue per gigawatt is going to fall massively, right? You can kind of just do the math. Now, it is tricky. We guess it depreciation rates. We think it depreciates over six years. So, yes, your margins take a hit as you do this, but the street's just struggling. And so, I don't know. I I I I think you will see estimates come up probably over the next two weeks as folks talk to each other, talk to the companies.