2016 Year End Wrap-Up: Discussing Docker, OpenStack, and Open Source

Key Takeaways

[Music] hi my name is alex williams founder of the new staff and you're listening to the new stock analyst podcast a show about application development and management and scale thanks for joining us hey it's alex williams of the new stack here in the new stack studios in st. john's portland oregon new stack administrative offices are now in the back of the house and the studio has moved downstairs and so this is the first show but also the last show of the season for the new stack analysts and it's been quite a year and what we're going to do is basically talk through some different topics of interest that we think we're significant in 2016 and so will address three topics and we will then go right into the discussion but before i do that i'd like to introduce everyone here and say in preface that these are the folks who put the noose act together on a daily basis these are the folks who who publish every story on the site and get the pictures up and get the captions read and get the ebooks out and do the research and write the stories and so these are the people who are really the that backbone of the new stack so i want to thank you all everybody here who's on the new sec team your work is so appreciated so thank you very much so both so let me just introduce everyone we have joe jackson managing editor of the new stack been ball our technical editor who put together the ebooks lawrence our research pro and scott fulton you've heard them on podcast before in the contact show and a frequent rider to the new sack everyone wonderful to see you and here for the last show of the season what to be with you Alex thank you you are welcome I would like to just say something to all the listeners out there who've been coming back to the new stack show off the show and we have a nice solid community who is coming back and listening to what we're doing here so if you're new to the show or if you've listened before thank you very much for you know for for tuning in we're trying to revise much by as you can and we have lots to do so let's just get right to it so in our this week at our year and wrap up we are talking about three different topics and so the three different topics we'd like to address a day number one whatever happened to the docker fork number two with her open sack and welcome Cooper Nettie's that's number two and number three the growing influence of open source in the enterprise so here we go whatever happened to the docker fork I think somebody stuck a fork in it that's what happened Alex you mm-hmm well what kind of work was stuck in it the kind that tells you it's done Oh is essentially up I think that was that was a little boiling cyst on the community there for a while by virtue of a little bit of a spat that erupted after a docker incorporated decided to graft docker swarm on to docker engine now up until then dr. incorporated had a kind of a policy that it called batteries included but replaceable the idea is we give you our suggestion of what will work best in in our container stack but please feel free to use what you will and in this case it was this grafting sort of puts it out in out in a space where it's a lot more the people where it's a little it's a little more difficult to replace it it becomes batteries included but by passable and some of the people who might have an orchestration system that uh that competed with docker swarm gosh I can't imagine who that might be felt a little ashamed a little hurt by that and maybe a little slighted and and took to what uh what counts today for the public airwaves and they shared some of their their the arguments in public and that pretty much Oh was it uh I think some of the hot air in the room that the docker fork did generate was usurped by what we now call the creo project some people still say cry oh I hear it is Creole a little more often it's it's something that came out of the Cooper Nettie's effort to standardize an interface and the the effort there is to essentially create a kind of an automated container engine that can be called forth by Cooper Nettie's to instantiate containers in place of docker engine and that that project is still ongoing as a matter of fact in recent weeks it's it sprouted some fruit ok yeah I Kelsey has a tutorial out on it mm-hmm oh yeah but instead I would wrap this up by saying that in so doing uh that I think especially Kelsey's efforts have helped mold this effort from something that was a little more contentious and argumentative and confrontational to something that's more productive and a good spirited and well-meaning and probably done with a little more concert with docker incorporated than it would have had otherwise excellent now I think the other part of this is joke the managing editor for the new stack I think the other part of this piece is dockers recent release of the container d runtime as well and this is this is the this also kind of stamps back to some of the early um I guess public expectation that Kelsey was doing this summer for dr. to uh be more open in in some of its of technologies but container container d is the basic at the runtime for the docker images are the docker containers for managing them and to a certain extent by open source sickness and looking for a community to take take it over ah docker is once again kind of us supporting the ecosystem or is moving in that direction I would say is container d and and creo is this necessarily the promise of what we talked about when we talked about the docker fork or does anyone think that maybe this is sort of a compromise between two different parties I that's sort of how I felt about creo was maybe a I feel like it's not fully realized into what we were sort of hearing rumors about with a docker fork I feel like in both instances it's sort of scaled down from what could have happened I think both of these projects kind of um alleviated the need for anyone to go out and try to try to go and create a docker fork myself that's my view I mean the the basic of the arguments for the docker fork was that uh the community didn't feel like I had enough control over the different components and both of these both of these projects uh address this issue from different sides uh-huh creo from the occur brunetti Sidon and container d from against a knocker side yeah I think also you need to think about the role the Foundation's here and there they're in their position and what you know and what pass that these different organizations can help play out for just a much wider and broader you know doctor and container ecosystem overall and you know I think that's going to be the big question is you know how you know how will we start to see really that is decisions being made according to us you know to how seen I gets integrated all these are from know and all these different you know different issues that will continue to surface as as the ecosystem really grows so I think that's you know one of the things I'm looking at in this these past three months we've seen a real meteoric rise of interest in the doctrine container ecosystem especially with ku benetti's and I think it's represented in creo and docker in container d is again showing that it you know that it has you know an interesting different take on the market and and I think that's you know and you know that's going to be kind of the the continued story I think they look at unfold in the next year so it's Lawrence and I have a take that I don't I like container day I think container day is an example of dockers commitment to doing open source its own way wedding but that is that it settings say they're going to work with the community they did they were actively involved with open container initiative that helps set the standards for Runcie and container diesel-run see just like a lot of the red hat and dress in rocket and another cup groups are doing their own runtime formats that are supposed to be based off of one see also there may have been some consternation because the way that Solomon hikes and docker likes new things is that they like to do some their heavy lifting with development behind closed doors to some extent they they are concerned about that innovation by committee doesn't work so what they did was they basically went through open container initiative big star allowed what standard should be they start doing some work then they put the project on the github several several months ago but they didn't give the community control over it they were able to get some contributions and input and then last week or two when they made it public and donated it they feel like they were had have controlled the project so that now the leap allow everyone to get involved including people that might not be have their core interests in mind namely red hat and Google Inc or less taking so but what is the contribution looking like any you tweeted something Lawrence what it for container d what did it look like uh it looked like zero contributions from from pro s0 contributions from i believe Red Hat and what it was I it was a broad swath of people that were not employees of docker contributing to the energy project so i believe it was 43 contributors uh we go since August they only had eight new contributors so there was a large group people contributing all along uh the big thing here is that it the man-hours soccer by eighty-six percent of the contributions instead of contributors it's from dr. so still Michael Crosby and a few other soccer folks they're doing the lion's share of work so is uh so where do you see the position of oci now than with in terms of docker and and they haven't reached at one point oh there's a miles there's a mile so they're trying to reach what exactly is that milestone job and Scott you familiar with that mile some might be the milestone release is just the yeah pre-release to the one da no it's basically alerting people look that that this is almost finished we just got a daughter I cross keys at this point it means that the know of the the image format is forthcoming um and the ocker has up as a sworn to support the oci in a Hornet and so um that provides a little bit of Britain for partners and large enterprise customer is that they know they could bank building systems on top of this without um docker moving into new territory that they may not like they'll tell yo see I standard uh you know that said whether or not bend or whether or not customers will demand that from either docker or other partners or other container solutions vendors remains to be seen but it's good to get some place Lawrence let me ask you since you cited a the numbers on contributions to container d and you said that the let me see if I get you correct use you said red hat and Google up to this point contributed zero is that right it had core OS google has contributed a very limited amount one of them was uh I don't have after named Jesse Jesse for sell um she's one of the contributors and for people who don't know she used to work for her doctor and laughed about a year ago and um the other contributor from google is actively involved with the communities project oh that he's sure that the container deal will work with communities you know who that is I think Mike dancing but I'd have to dull checking look I stand corrected google has made some limited contribution but Red Hat and core OS have contributed zero to the rack okay what do you suppose a would be a red hats and coral esas incentive up to this point to contribute a code and progression to a piece of the project that up until now has been largely described as a component of docker engine uh and they would not have incentive to do that do you think so so you can't blame them have incentive to provide enough input so that doctor doesn't go in the wrong direction so they're stuck having to use a lot of the standards that form at the doctors working on they want make sure they have enough input into the situation so they're not going to be cut out of luck if you're saying if they were smarter they would have contributed some defensive moves to help keep docker incorporated more in line yeah and I thought that's what a lot of what Oh see I was supposed to be about it's I there was technical committee that's working on general standards so that no matter what if they it knows that go too far off the reservation yeah but Oh see I only dealt with the run see uh with the in container runtime and container d is outside the purview isn't it yeah um and I don't you know more about this than I do but I believe that they were talking about doing image standards at one point I don't know how much progress they made on that Syndic progress maybe that's part of where this is going how about run c and container d-pad able there what a container DS built on top of frenzy okay so there's a there's compatibility there yeah I can we agree or even if they haven't contributed so far to container d are we all sort of an agreement that they likely will it seems like it would be in their best interest or at least fitting a pattern for them there's at least contributors from core OS and red hat that seemed to make their way into many related projects I can't help but think that in the name of making sure that this technology that they're tied very closely to is is going in the right direction that they will eventually be contributing so it seems like part of the direction is moving into like the discussions about the years themselves right and like you know what can they agree on and I think you saw it this week in a discussion about CNI that brandon from or OS started and you know and think we're going to support soon I it's getting lots of interest in the envy the group my container games was providing some you know some optimism that they see and I were to be integrated in an allison and scott um I in that discussion I had seen that there was some openness to you the docker accepting lots of CN I for their networking I know the doctor had it'll sometimes was being yet being so competitive with CN I can you guys have any background on that piece it seemed like uh doctor was what was Lisa Michael Crosby I think was Crosby for Salman it was going closer to saying did you see and I for certain use cases I believe that C and I at least as it's been demonstrated thus far is general enough where it's it's really difficult to create something that's that's the to distinguish from it without it just becoming difference her differences sake uh and i think the the community would probably see right through that if somebody attempted to so there's probably nothing that would prevent docker from from wanting to essentially support CNI that's stated uh this is something that Solomon hikes has stated in the past that it's in the interest of docker and in the community at large to standardize upon those components which are essentially undifferentiated in which he feels you really can't build a corporation around and you can't Cruise differentiated value around dr. swarm provides differentiated value because it's a it's a special way in which to orchestrate workloads and docker uses that as part of its proof point but it sees more and more that duh that a growing number of elements of infrastructural elements in the container stack are undifferentiated and really unnecessary to try to build value around so it's a good idea to okay to a foundation and make those an open standard excellent we have done justice to the first topic of discussion in our three-part discussion on 2016 stories and number two whither OpenStack welcome kuber Nettie's and so I'll lead it off here and just saying that the show in Barcelona was so different than any other open sexual I've been that I have attended it was much quieter it was it was did not have the energy and it came after you know the the most reason when i attended was the vent in Silicon Valley and there we had a pancake breakfast and it's like OpenStack in Cooper Nettie's Cooper nannies and OpenStack Brant is saying it's moving over to Cooper Nettie's and now since then we've had all of these all of these different issues you know all these different kind of like questions have been popping up so what's what are you guys thoughts about this about you know what's happening to OpenStack well I can't help but think Alex that it's 2014 all over again in in 2014 when Cooper Nettie's first started arriving on the scene I heard a lot of OpenStack advocates see Cooper Nettie's as a threat as an open Brett uh and as I mentioned during our pancake breakfast in Austin they were using a very hyperbolic descriptions of the the emerging onslaught from Cooper Nettie's by that time bye bye summer of the year things had gotten a lot more peaceful and people were actually talking about hosting Kuber Nettie's on an OpenStack layer that was in turn hosted by kubo Eddie's was on a layer of OpenStack it was like a multi-layer crepe sandwich there for a while and everybody each other and all seemed right with the world as they say in A Christmas Story up until about October and that is when I think the hot air was let out of the balloon and we started to see hot air out of the balloon what do you think Jim oh uh well there certainly was a bit less hot air at the barcelona show for better or for worse HP ana that kind of a muted presence there brings out you know they were by that time we're already starting to divest from their pool OpenStack platform illiana you know later we found out the order process of Osamu to uh suisei and also not a big presence there that show was IBM which surprised me because they were you know they they were there to some degree but not to the extent that you would expect IBM to be there uh and uh what I found potential to stay as a Scott mentioned a kind of uneasy relationship that OpenStack has with Cooper Nettie uh you know earlier this year at Austin quarrel asset unveiled stack annuities which is basically using Cooper Nettie's to solve a real OpenStack problem which is how do you in stop update OpenStack which is really you know kind of difficult now a days ah at least in theory promises to make that easier and it turns out stacking Eddie's is one of a number of initiatives to do that and there's bringing their if there were some good blinks made actually both conferences about how stacking it sorry that um Cooper Nettie's doesn't solve all of the OpenStack problems I mean you get oh you can't in communities to prevent provision storage or networking can as a container service uh but on the other hand you know I yeah I kept asking a lot of opens that folks is like well why do I need OpenStack if I ain't know if I have criminais days and uh what dance right her goober nighties is great for the for the for the club perhaps but OpenStack is still needed for the leg and see your in-house apps of people want to move do your private cloud and that doesn't really strike me as the strongest argued for a technology is that it still supports older legacy technology uh the only other thing I mentioned on that is the ongoing interest of OpenStack it does seem to be a really a big hit in the telecom community which is you know working through its own issues about how to provision you know large scale services you know beyond the enterprise this is something that you know Scott Fulton has wrote written quite in depth about so uh oh that got along with network functions virtualization will always have a home in the telecom space but for that I don't know it seems to be in a bit of a ah yeah like you said Alex energy seems to be at a low point but us at a low point a year ago to in Japan so I don't know I open socket always keeps seeming rising up like a phoenix one thought that I have is is maybe just wondering if my perspective is reflecting something or if it's just me is that I have a hard time knowing if OpenStack is at a low or if it's just being eclipsed by the enormous growth of Cooper Nettie's rather I have a lot of these conversations about say stack and Eddie's as Joe brought up and I tend as a person I've been getting this perspective from people who are actively involved in Cooper Nettie's and these are people who know a lot about OpenStack but the perspective there for me is just skewed towards Cuba Nettie's and I wonder if that is because of how rapidly cooping a beast is coming to the spotlight or if it's because it's sort of taking away from OpenStack and it may be a little bit of multiple things because of money i'm looking at a report of the market share analysis Marcus ah seng from a guy named Greg's Walkman and he's basically saying that in 2017 the entire to OpenStack market it's going to be 2.6 billion dollars in that uh in two thousand verses us here we go um it's versus lee 1.1 billion dollars for containers like containers are the 10 year younger market segment uh good more about this later but the idea is that there's money am I going to containers and their excitements not with OpenStack all the only excitement they're getting is with ku benetti's in OpenStack so uh you guys were at the conference I wasn't but like Cola Cooper daddy's fuel CCP those are things that brightens tech neighs were all containers related that were talking about that had it was not magnum or key k u yr which were the OpenStack specific container projects that people talked about a year ago I think a lot of things that people got excited about OpenStack we're really things that Cooper Nettie's addresses better it's about putting a patient the cloud and scaling it easily over sec really I think it's kind of designed more for service providers I think it's more unique to that particular level that's a smaller audience though it's uh you know bigger bigger companies on home but there's a bigger audience specific audience that needs highly trained individuals and people were getting trained on something i would get trained on cou benetti's learn cooper neighs i'm at your learn OpenStack now it's like ooh benetti's i can look at the service or bot i can work a lot different places yeah i think it makes what yeah what job says about the the telecom market and fee and what you're saying you know Lawrence about you know where would you want to we know what do you what would a young person really want to learn and and you know about microservices about you know building out you know applications that can scale you know doing all these things and I don't see them going to OpenStack I see them you know turning their attention to these new to to these newer communities that had just grown so so astonishing astonishingly fast now that doesn't mean that Oh beside doesn't have a future right I mean it may very well mean they just have a very kind of focused market and you know cloudstack is Dylan use main frames are still in use right it's going to become a mainframe that has very specific you said only 10,000 people use it hmm maybe well that's it's interesting because you know if you look back to when stack first you know first launched back in you know 2011 I believe or 2010 it had a great promise of this like federated cloud and it um you know that was kind of the dream of OpenStack that he could actually kind of you know form like this woven infrastructure you know that would allow you know to create this great compute right that people could use and it became a you know false hope that the the reality came to be that you did four different versions were you know would not be very compatible between different districts we wouldn't have the compatibility that you would like to have to be able to create that kind of a federated cloud world so to speak and I think that was a turning point right there you know when you can't have that capability and you're not in your naughty and it's being built for infrastructure more than it's being built you know for application developers um you know that's just that just changes that just changes everything and I think we saw some examples of some public clouds under you know there was a there was a public cloud movement under opens under OpenStack for a while you know similarly there was a public cloud movement under vmware what they were gonna like pair up the telcos and like do all these you know using their their you know their cloud virtualization technology that he announced at the time and you know and I think time has just passed and now we're in a new era and you know and and it doesn't mean anything doesn't mean that that opens that goes away and I was part of the conversation will be an ongoing private conversation but the ecosystem is you know that the the diversity and the number of people in it compared to Cooper Nettie's is you know is is you know is is hard when to make almost and the other thing that's when Cooper days actually could help OpenStack you know I mean and if we can see some deeper integrations there it actually might be very interesting so Alex to your point about the public cloud I think a bit of openstax misfortunes this year may not necessarily be open stacks fault right oh the lesser of the public cloud services those that come after the big three we're staking their future on the hope that their customers would specifically be interested in hybrid cloud and I have make love happen they staked everything on OpenStack so when Citrix pulled out in last January and that started the ball rolling and the dominoes falling HPE cisco uh to a lesser extent I am but a number of the public cloud players started pulling back and that reduced the market space for hybrid OpenStack so that started to turn things negative and people started asking the question will is there something wrong with OpenStack here and then that's when people started taking inventory of what was wrong with OpenStack and the number one thing on that list is it's hard to maintain for a number of enterprises they see it as simply too difficult to set up and maintain on a regular basis that's why when people look at Cooper Nettie's even though the it is an apples and oranges comparison they say you know people may be having trouble with goober Nettie's here whereas I've got all this staff voted to OpenStack and I'm not really seeing a whole lot of benefit from that couple that with the costs involved in in layering all these different layers of software atop the tens of thousands of virtual machines that a big enterprise OpenStack installation has to maintain at all at once you're talking about annual fees are coming up to tens of millions of dollars a year right right yeah yeah I have a better way of staging this and i'm working for yet definitely [Music] good well let's move on to the last topic the growing influence of open source in the enterprise and here's some of the stories that Joe put together that he saw this linux foundation's jim's emmalin on the new economics of open source for open source sought source offer foundations of the new cathedrals fedora tous NOS there's we've been writing a lot about open source communities Jobo I'm curious what do you see is the news value for us for the new stack now why are these stories of interest what are they saying about the community out there oh well I'm approaching it from the perspective of the enterprise user and the potential enterprise user and uh so and by the way you can find all these stories in our show notes for this podcast but basically you know I've been in this business for a while and over the past the previous decade we followed the enterprise software vendors very closely the Oracles of the world of Microsoft's sa peas and we we had you know prices would have feedback and do what features what would be coming up and what's which bugs would be um fix most most quickly but it was largely kind of a opaque structure where you know we're just waiting for the new release to be handed down by microsoft and and the whole open source i think it a crisis need to participate in the open source community to get their own feedback their own needs uh address buy these products open source isn't particularly a money saver but it is a way of making sure the software that you're using it's available it's you can expand upon it uh more quickly to get your own needs met and so will recover an open source it's really kind of in the eye it's for the perspective of the enterprise user and the relationships that um that in the open source community that the vendors who support the open source community and the customers who use these open source products are it's entirely new Beast I think software is you know I mean I'd say this a lot of software's at the center of business and and software's increasingly open source and I think you know that you know and if you want to have any kind of you know scaling it scaled out environment you got to be thinking about open source I mean why would you not I mean you're not going to build out something you know on proprietary technology anymore just from a cost basis alone it wouldn't wouldn't make sense hey so Scott what would you call what Amazon's doing with open source is it a special type of open source well I have always said that there are two different applications of the open source concept two different open source models there is the open source development model uh that in which participating developers be they independent be they part of an organization they work alongside with one another and they elect democratically elect leaders for their community groups and they make democratic decisions about how to proceed and they effectively build an agenda for themselves and I think in recent years that's been more effective than in previous years and then there's the open source business model which is a very different thing it's an attempt to be more transparent about how one developed software uh it is an effort to bring more people into the process so that you can cultivate good ideas but you're still holding on to the idea that even if it is group intellectual property it is still us the people who put their logos on the product who provide this for you and support it for you that's the open source business model that red hat is pioneered so Wilma succeeded with and two other extends canonical and Souza and Amazon Amazon's model is a somewhat open source ish with an emphasis on the itch because you can apply transparency uh to varying degrees depending on your aims I call this obama ism it's a way of becoming as transparent as you want to be and as opaque as you need to be alright Obama is I'm okay so one thing that I've I don't have the exact date in front of me but one thing that Linux Foundation a bunch of other surveys that have come out or talking about is that people have open source in use and enterprise but they do not have a way to check how compliance and open source uh and everyone says that's important and they're trying to sell their products today I'll help you with compliance uh but what I'm interested in is that I think that most developers don't really care about compliance that is the security and legal team that cares and that's think there's gonna be any traction on people selling products sonatype black the white hat things like that i think when i whenever I've talked with the people in the compliance space and the people in security spaces that are deal with compliance as a main issue I their problem is getting the development teams too cold there is a there's a complete disconnect there uh between a modern software development both open source and proprietary is is not really a contingent upon open source necessarily but it but software development and all field simply is not communicating with anybody in the in the in the compliance field and you can go to an RSA Conference and and you can watch the people in the compliance space try to make contact with software developers and actually watch them be able to do so before your very eyes it is amazing to see well isn't that isn't that the change that we're okay that I that is that is a bit different with you know what we're seeing with Cooper Nettie's and you know in these container open-source environments where the rules of change right you know the it's now about it is now it's not about scarcity it's about abundance you know there's an abundance of data more than a scarcity by any measure and so now we have to think about how we you know how these open source technologies actually cross right and how they intersect and you know that to me seems like a vital change in the in like in the mindset that you had that that's going to be required for people when they're thinking about open source you know how do you think about Cooper Nettie's in terms of an open source you know in terms of open source you know how do you think about you know how you know how do these different technologies fit I mean that's why I think you're seeing things like trireme emerge right you know and it will be interesting to see who gets it first like who will really figure this stuff out right and be able to like kind of find a real market advantage out of that in the networking space I for example I just don't see it you know storage yeah maybe yeah but mostly you know that's the bad that's that that's the bigger area you know um but the movement is changing things you know there's there's going to be you shifted the martyr that Rizzo from this open-source adoption in what market well I would think you know that I mean if you think look at the markets you know you think about you know how enterprises consider their own infrastructure right you know they're going to have to look at they're going to have to look at systems are going to have to look at the software platforms are going to have to they're going to have to think about these choices that they make and like how do they fit into the most how they make the most efficient how they make the most economical with the most you know maximum return right and you know and you know that means that they're going to be looking to vendors who understand this space right you know so i think is gonna be across multiple markets well i think to some extent we have been saying this for a number of years that enterprises will have to think about this every time there's oh well mainly difference is between thinking and actually doing right yes well maybe that's the difference we need to see this that's a difference that we're seeing right now and yeah i agree with you Scott but I think it maybe that's the difference is thinking versus doing you took the words out of my mouth stuck them on a plate you you put them on a dish you served a much much more nicely and i was wondering 11 question i have for i guess open source in 2016 is sort of getting it is the current state of things any different than how it's always been I think we can't go without talking about the role of open source foundations this year linux foundation is a good example we talk a lot about them we've worked with them a lot just the their involvement in Coober Nettie's their involvement in projects like prometheus it just seems like to me anyway and i want to be called wrong if I'm wrong that foundations are becoming I don't want to say in a way a standard move again because I'm open to the idea that this is nothing new but it I'm interested to hear what others opinions are about the role of foundations like the Linux Foundation this year I mean I just from a size perspective the Linux Foundation is huge with the number of open source technologies ah that are out there that it is overseeing I mean just everything from no.2 and TP that they've got it Linux Foundation has their hands and a lot of stuff and it's primarily commercially driven enough that that that could be argued to be a good thing or a bad thing but the Linux Foundation is entirely different beast and say you know the apache software foundation which exists only pretty much only two to give projects some sort of structure for governance where is the Linux Foundation is um a lot a lot more proactive in asserting their technologies now I know some I've never really thought about it too much but I know Diana from over right at was talking about how you know that you know the Foundation's may have too much influence but uh i'm not sure but there's a dish there's an there is an interesting wrinkle here and i think it is related to like where where do we see the tinkering going on and one of the most interesting things this week about Jarvis for me was that you know that of course he knows Zuckerberg has all the resources in the world to do turn his house into x cos you know into like this AI playground where you know like you can you know like I'm like you know some machine is teaching his child how to you know speak Mandarin right you know what Jarvis is Mark Zuckerberg own project for aii automation yes lamont of it yes yes yes and fast company has a great story about it I'm going into his house and like inlays there's a video he's actually done of videos and stuff like that but but in case in case here's the thing for me at least what's interesting here is where are the developers going what are they going to be doing you know what do they want to be playing with you know what do they give you and they're gonna be love faith in the end the young people who you know I've had encounters with who are like really geeky they love the blinking lights they love the kind of way to think about you know just things that we live with much differently that to me says provides some questions about our current thinking of an open source and how for instance the arm world is going to is going to force some different thinking as we as we actually actually have to have compute uh almost everywhere you know and that's good that's gonna that's gonna accelerate great there are like the processor yeah you seem to be sort of hinting at the open hardware space as well here right yeah yeah uh hardware is infinitely harder than software and what people see is that the amount of customization is dramatically more I don't think they'll hoping hard worse things gonna go you know all I'm saying is like there's you know we're gonna this is a work just on the start of this word on the start of this kind of movement here so I think that a flat feet was you or scott who said that the rules have changed I don't think the rules have changed I think that some of the situations have changed so people are making different decisions than they did 15 years ago 10 years ago so that there's more openness in the illegal and security community divisions and departments at large companies to let people use open source so that you're not scared that you're gonna get an objection if you put an open source component into your software i think that the one of the big things is that for years linux has been the heart in the biggest example of the open source community and lobby people people don't need to use linux for so many different reasons kuber daddy's brings open source the real open Active open source community dr brings a real active open source community to a much broader audience um but I mean which start making you think about some of these other projects like node.js is that gonna be bringing open source to a whole nother sub-communities and you guys know better than I do but there was a big problem with no oj acids community and management for a while so there's a lot of pitfalls also you're a firm that dr. shortly fork that happened a couple years ago one uh two bday the bull request got back up backed up you guys yes I think it was called for ya yes that I mean that whole situation as we talked about we didn't talk about explicitly when we talked about docker fork today but during that whole coverage we talked about it a lot and that sort of was an example and often used an example of some of the challenges of managing open source communities that has that changed significantly since even couple years ago with no J guess because the the rumors of the docker fork obviously weren't weren't well I I would want to say they weren't as advanced as clearly I ojs was with an actual fork being created and an active administration of both sides but what's what's different are these is this a situation where an open source community strategy has evolved or is it really more of the same i guess the equivalent would be if docker handed over it's a code base to OC I or some other party because we now have the node the node foundation and chocolate which was overseeing it uh it wasn't central to their core business they were using no do run operations they had a familiarity with it but they weren't really in the best position to oversee all the different use cases uh where is now a stalker or you know or still assuming a crusading to charge in terms of you know how to do advanced functionality with these containers or at least for those who want to stay within the dock or system so it's yeah notice its own thing and dr. Kerr remains under the helmet ocker I see the Linux Foundation as providing a more positive example than in prior years of how to collectively organized and come across some type of a common agenda I think they have achieved a to some degree a generally positive diplomatic framework whereas and Joe mentioned this whereas Apache foundation was a lot more about providing a support structure for the software and the individual project Linux Foundation has been much more about the communication hitting everybody in line to talk about what needs to be done and i think the going back to the container the example are the probably what will happen here the linux foundation will create yet another small foundation around container d it will contain some of the same human being on the ciencia and guangzhou CI but they will be talking about this and you're wondering why do a completely different foundation just for this actually that's the whole idea to maintain a focus on this one thing to make it happen to make any general standard and then to move on and talk about something else I see that as a fairly positive model and I would suggest that the United Nations atop the model that's more similar what the Linux Foundation is going but once I make that suggestion that I believe it would probably take them about 10 years to read it and get back to me no I think that you are some ways things right but loud what you're saying has a lot of problems and I can you that won't be on my tombstone warrants like you see you I'd ever think that create a foundation it's very hard to disband it so if you create the foundation the creation in and of itself is crazy bureaucracy increasing establishment political establishment technology establishment that have a nurse John so people go by default start using container date so going back looking at the example of orchestration there's a project called firmament they have Cambridge is a supposedly technically superior for orchestration but no one's going to use it because there's enough critical mass with Cuban Eddie's in a foundation behind that so that if companies is not the technically superior solution it's gonna be a foundation to make sure that that's community stays in place if to go to politics you know hello Crescent pub Republicans liberals and Tory's it doesn't matter this what if their political philosophy is good or not once it's created you can't get him out it was more stalker so where's doc are gonna go what's docker gonna do they're gonna go into the mean late you know that they they've had some their own point of view about standards groups and the foundations are as close as we get these days to standard troops I I wonder Howard you know how this is going to play out is that we gonna are we get our you know you know second part of that second part of that and in response to Scott I can't remember exactly what Scott's words were either can I where do we think container d is going and does it matter because it seems like it's different if container d goes to Linux Foundation versus if it's somehow creating a new foundation well those container d help you know docker you know the container d for instance integrate C&I what does that mean right does that mean you know where does that lead you know what I mean if there's a CNI compatibility and there's also keep in mind docker now has at least what 95 ninety-seven percent of all the container users out there so it's really still their market this really is let's remember that yeah so um yeah I die I die now I think I I think um you know this is a this is the big question but how do these all these different communities come together and like you know what are the standards discussions around those and it's yeah it's a much different kind of a of this is much different kind of scenario instead of where you have likely this wild growth I think that's what you know one thing that is interesting this past year's like how do you the question has come I was like how do you manage these fast-growing explosive open source communities and foundations are one way to do that but then it creates its own set of issues but technically on the technical side you know there's lots of interesting kind of questions about what are the best tools to manage open source communities because essentially are as far as managing is managing the people well 10 years ago Alex I think maybe I would have agreed with the idea that it's just that it's a silly idea to create more bureaucracies to met to use the same people to essentially manage the same things and I would have also agreed with people saying that uh that the easiest way to stage hyperscale workloads would be to break everything down into very small little units these little micro units and disperse these these tens of millions of micro units all over the planet I would have said that that's absolutely ridiculous as uber Nettie's is proven it's not ridiculous at all it's actually quite wonderful and it works very very well and the Linux Foundation may be implementing the micro services model on another scale effectively yes it's creating new bureaucracies for every little thing we want to talk about it standardized and come to an agreement on but the fact that it is a separate bureaucracy and a smaller smaller unit amid all the other smaller units mamie mean it's it's more focused and self-contained in contiguous and there's some benefits to that excellent excellent excellent so why don't we conclude things with each of our predictions what do you guys say good idea right on ok I'll start I'll make it quick you know my my prediction is that will see the container infrastructure will continue to become like the you know the story for how infrastructure is built and how its managed and maintained and how you look looks like the container infrastructure will will reflect you know the move towards applications we will you know will see that then in more sophisticated orchestration more see you know the open source communities I think will have their biggest challenges with their growth emanage and having the tools to manage that growth there's different ecosystem that we're interested in I think we'll be following just because we think that they have some merit the container ecosystem the serverless ecosystem the node ecosystem and so what you know I expect all of those will you know have a lot to uh well will have a big impact on the next year in the way we think about it to the community when we come back again in December of 2017 that's it for me a little bit about myself i got a new studio downstairs now here it is there's a old family sled a zine there's a zine vessel that was here baby years ago a skateboard from the Linux Foundation which says using Linux is not a crime which shows that you know things have changed quite a bit since I went to that conference who wants to go next then sure so my prediction is a kidding back a lot into the open source business talk I guess and and docker as well and a lot so much a prediction about what's going to happen is something that I'm aware of and interested in and we didn't talk a lot about this and either the first or last segments but 2016 sort of uh had a lot of major commercial partnerships for docker including a Microsoft a partnership with Microsoft and a partnership with Alibaba I think both of those are going to be extremely interesting to watch going in 2017 docker has put a lot of resources into their expansion into China there's been a lot of speculation about what that partnership will create and I think the relationship with Microsoft is a different and interesting and some other ways there has often been a question or a couple times been a question of who could buy docker and Microsoft has sometimes been hinted at as an answer to that and I'm not really making any predictions about that but I'm really interested to see if this partnership increases in involvement we had the windows server partnership with docker this year I think they'll be more to see there and I think this kind of open source commercial dealing is going to be important in general not only to the feature of docker but perhaps to other open source projects that may look to do the same thing Oh case Lawrence I have protections are three of them one is that there's a fifty percent chance that doctor will get bought by microsoft the people soccer has a problem in terms that they don't have a really good business model that's one thing but they've awesome developers and a lot of them same reason why what people would would have bought twitter is for the staff so it's amazing there two is that cloud migration technology in services is gonna face a bubble oh it's really really hot for the last year or so a lot of people were moving selling services to migrate cloud hitting caboodle to infrastructure that was really lift and shift that might continue somewhat but the other parts are harder and it's going to take were consulting work and services rather than someone having a silver bullet with software to get that done and lastly is that mobile developers mobile applications are good are the key to the future of serverless that's where serverless has come from in terms of mobile backend as a service and as people start looking more functions as a service they're going to look at what happened in the mobile mobile licensor mb AAS market successes and failures and they're going to see that the first market for people who want to use the server lists software and services that are being developed by vc communities right now are going to be mobile developers Great Scott Alex I think Vikings by two touchdowns Sam Bradford will come back in the fourth quarter after probably being type of Packers at halftime no actually um my prediction for next year and as my dozens and dozens of fans at two or three will count through the years I I'm 1 i'm one I promise yeah you're one which leaves 11 equal in theirs let's either three of them here so there's so there's the rest of you so you know six or seven of you out there who've known me through the years and know that that usually I refrain from predictions because I don't I don't see myself as a prognosticator but also because I'm I'm I suck at this but but I will say this it's kind of an observation of the industry that a lot of people told me enough people have told me where it hurts my ears up and it is kind of a game-changer which I think 2017 maybe the year where this actually happens people told me in the past they say Scott enterprises probably won't pay really really close attention to containerization and its space in in with respect to public cloud until one and then more of the major public cloud service providers start to change their pricing models to enable an alternate pricing that backs away from this VM centric way of doing things amazon and azure and google cloud they all have vm centric pricing for staging their container services you pay for as many VMS as are necessary stage containers so the more distributed your containers are the more expensive that becomes and that is what has been keeping it cost prohibitive up to now and that's great that's crazy given the fact that we're talking about microservice architectures like that one container per vm exactly it becomes absolutely ridiculous Google may have been just ever so slightly more innovative than its its two brethren in a space by finding ways of waiving some of the things with respect to stage in Coober Nettie's interest instances in in it with compute engine but still the main pricing level is based on on a per vm basis I expect there will be a time when somebody will test the waters whether it's on a beta basis or preview basis they say let's let's open it up let's try a different pricing model that is based on the resources that the containers at we consume in terms of compute units or storage units and or and or bandwidth great and per vm making it more cost effective then there will be a new class or more than one new class of industries that will start to perk your ears up and say okay maybe containerization is a way to go and the class of i'm really thinking about is healthcare healthcare healthcare actually healthcare is there a political angle well we'll wait for for the incoming administration to tell us what the political angle should be on go Joe why don't you things up here for me 2070 I think we're going to see the rise of voice driven computing I think I think the voiced is the new command line and this pains me to say cuz my own voice is crap but uh over the last year I think we've seen a lot more usage not only from smartphones but also from services such as Amazon alexa i think uh amazon reported that they got a huge spike in users um around thanksgiving i'm just people asking about recipes and help you know timers that sort of thing um you know and that's people were just starting to get an idea of like they could just say stuff to the phone now to do it and I think smartphone uh those are using smartphone owners well there's someone survey that uh forty two percent of us smartphone owners said they use their at their voice uh voice features over the last three months and more a third of those users that these services at least once a day I mean people are starting to realize it and the voice I think that voice commands have been around for a while but I think there is a number of factors at work to really this year it's going to turn it or next year is going to turn into something entirely new number one I think people are tired of like staring and typing into their iphone Jesus um another thing is it a lot of work going on chat box right now I mean that by itself is a huge trend and once you get the once you get the infrastructure to support chat box you know that this these are things we don't have to go into the app you just like type a command and you get an answer but once you're you know once you bring it to that level there's no reason why you can't extend it ought to voice and another thing is there's a been a big improvement in understanding people's voices through the use of machine learning um you know Microsoft and Amazon are doing a lot of work to improve voice recognition and there's a lot IDM it's not a lot of interesting voice to text services and so this in fact is getting developers more comfortable with the idea of using machine learning in general the kind of map out uh you know the next thing that the user is going to want and so all this I think adds up to uh uh uh yeah there's the for developers there's going to be a new set of tools that they can use to interact with their users and you know machine learning a chat bots are going to open up the field kind of dramatically as to what can be done uh with voice commands and I think we're going to start to see that next year very strong ending to the show thank you guys all for for everything this year thanks for listeners out there however hope everyone has a great end a year and when we back in January thanks a lot for joining us happy new year everyone thank you my name is alex williams founder of the new stack and you're listening to the new stack analyst podcast a show about application development and management at scale thanks again and i hope to see you back at the show bye-bye [Music]