What's Replacing the Alcohol Industry? | My First Million

Key Takeaways

alcohol is in the gutter. So, it says spirit inventories are soaring and it shows Kari and uh you know a bunch of other spirit brands that Odyssey I don't know how to pronounce cuz they're front of French. But basically from 2011 to 2025 there's this up into the right trend. It's basically a measure of inventory as a percentage of sales. And so it goes from like what used to be under 20%. to in some of these cases like 60% 70% 80% you know it's a crazy crazy rise and this lines up um with I guess my lived experience in our social circle our age group drinking ain't cool anymore being healthy is cool and drinking isn't cool when are you going to learn that when you see me do something healthwise you should just expect that it's going to be popular in three years I I gave up booze in 2013 or 14 I think 14 So yes, uh I didn't actually think this was going to be that popular. I did not think that this was going to be a trend, but we actually wrote about this. We had um my old company, The Hustle, had a newsletter called Trends, and we wrote about the rise of non-alcoholic beer. And it was actually Steph Smith, who's uh we all know is an amazing person, very smart. She pitched me this idea, and I was like, I don't I don't buy it. I think this is insane. I don't I I really don't believe it, but go ahead, write the article. and she c so a lot of guys a lot of people have been calling this and um I actually even though I'm sober I did not think that this was going to be as real as it is >> and so I think there's an interesting question which is I don't think people fundamentally just become better better behaving over time I think they substitute >> yeah they're just using drugs >> yeah so what's the substitute I think is the interesting question right so you had you had non-alcoholic we non-alcoholic beers we had I think the guy from what is it called Athletic Brewing Co on the podcast >> yeah they're awesome um we you know kin spirits there's been all these like startup brands that are in the non-alcoholic um space but then you have just substitutes straight substitutes so weed it's probably a winner where else have people gone where where are people getting the behavior what what jobs to be done were done by alcohol that are now being done by something else like is it literally just Tik Tok scrolling right like people are literally just not going out because they're at home on their phones and when you're not going out you're not drinking as much >> what I'm noticing in my is um so I you know it's I I could never tell if I only hang out with people who don't drink because I don't drink or if it's like truly uh popular or less popular but zen I mean nicotine some type of like nonsmoke nicotine so vaping I mean although none of my friends vape uh but they everyone does uh do some type of like zen. The second one is the rise of psychedelics. So I have just a crazy amount of friends that are regularly and I mean like every 6 months doing some type of like journey that they call it which uh I think has like a different set of uh issues but then um I think like exercise to be honest like it just seems like more people are like into exercising. Have you seen this company called Ultra? I think they're kind of like a Zen type company. So Ultra, founded in 2025, which is last year, just raised $11 million to scale non-nicotine focus pouches. So they basically taken the nicotine thing, but they're branding it as like a focus tool. And um they've already sold 1 million cans in 6 months and claims the position number one amongst nicotine-free pouches globally. While Zen dominates the nicotine pouch market, Ultra is targeting a different segment, higher performers who want cognitive enhancement without addiction. It's a $16 can. Their round is led by blah blah blah. I think Austin Reef maybe in this or he was definitely >> I think he was bragging about it. Yeah, >> he's very bullish on this uh company. >> The the the website says powering top performers at Facebook Goldman Seoia. Like it's pretty funny that like that is considered cool now. >> Your cracked out friend's secret weapon. Listen, when you and I were just getting started in San Francisco, it used to be a thing that people would protest at the Google bus. And I even remember there was an era where they were flipping over smart cars because they thought that smart cars like represented like techies for some reason. I don't I don't understand that. But do you remember that? Now they're trying to be cool by saying that people who work at RAMP chew our nicotine. That's just crazy. Times have changed. >> By the way, you were also early on the nicotine trend. >> Yeah, except I did. I was a I was a I was a skull guy. I loved uh I loved tobacco. >> I remember before we went on stage, we were doing our first live show in Vancouver or Victoria and me and you didn't really have a good idea of what we were getting into and we saw that this like entire theater full. It was like I don't know 2,000 3,000 people but it looked grand like you have a photo of it. It's like you know four stories high of people and it's a dark theater or whatever. And um we peek out from behind the curtain. You see that? And then immediately it was me, you and Andrew. And both of you started scrambling for drugs. You were both like, "Can we get a pouch? Can someone go get Can you run across the street real quick and get a nicotine pouch?" And I was like, "What? Do you even Is that like did you not need that till 2 seconds ago? What What is happening right now?" And then you both popped in a pouch and then went on stage. It was incredible. >> Yeah, that's a substitute. And I think then I was actually I would just swallow the nicotine spit. You just stick it in there and you just swallow it. That's like what the what the hard Southerners do. Yeah. The but the lack of alcohol to bring it back to that. Um that is a bit surprising that it's so widespread. But I haven't been around like drunk people in so long. Have you? [clears throat] >> No. But I just assumed it's cuz I'm like in dad mode. I didn't realize how you know like I thought these are all bubbles, right? So I thought, oh myself and just kind of dad mode. What? Yeah. I'm not drinking out there. Then I thought, well, my tech friends were all biohacking Brian Johnson, but we're in a bubble. But then you see this, and this is the global inventory stock of these alcohol companies. And it made me realize like maybe this behavior is not just limited to my bubble that's taking place in the the broader community cuz we're we're all too small of a group to affect, you know, the actual trend lines. >> If I had to guess, it's going to be cyclical. If I had to guess, this will make a comeback. >> Similar to black turtlenecks under jackets. Well, look, Sean, >> bringing that one back single-handedly. >> Uh, a turtleneck is a pedestal for the face, and I'm just trying to show off what God gave me. >> Putting it on a pedestal. [laughter] >> I like you said pedestal, which took took away some of that [laughter] that quack that you [laughter] had there. Um, can I give you >> 10 degrees in New York City? Listen, there's this article that I read about a turtleneck. and said, "When a man wears a turtleneck, he's asserting or he's advancing the situation." And that situation is himself. [laughter] >> He's advancing the situation. That's incredible. Wow. That's [clears throat] the best branding since uh the actual situation from the Jersey Shore.