Gwern — Anonymous writer who predicted AI trajectory on $12K/year salary

Gwern's blog: https://gwern.net/. Gwern is a pseudonymous researcher and writer. After the episode, I convinced Gwern to create a donation page where people can help sustain what he's up to. Please go here to contribute: https://donate.stripe.com/6oE9DTgaf6oD0M03cc. Thank you to my friend Chris Painter for doing an amazing job voice acting Gwern. 𝐒𝐏𝐎𝐍𝐒𝐎𝐑𝐒 * Jane Street is looking to hire their next generation of leaders. Their deep learning team is looking for ML researchers, FPGA programmers, and CUDA programmers. Summer internships are open - if you want to stand out, take a crack at their new Kaggle competition. To learn more, go here: https://jane-st.co/dwarkesh * Turing provides complete post-training services for leading AI labs like OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, and Gemini. They specialize in model evaluation, SFT, RLHF, and DPO to enhance models’ reasoning, coding, and multimodal capabilities. Learn more at https://turing.com/dwarkesh. * This episode is brought to you by Stripe, financial infrastructure for the internet. Millions of companies from Anthropic to Amazon use Stripe to accept payments, automate financial processes and grow their revenue. Learn more here: https://stripe.com/ 𝐄𝐏𝐈𝐒𝐎𝐃𝐄 𝐋𝐈𝐍𝐊𝐒 * Transcript: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/gwern-branwen * Me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp * Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/46H5dTtYaj1L55UAy9XXaY?si=xVoj6euwQdmZYnyvaQ46lA 𝐓𝐈𝐌𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐌𝐏𝐒 00:00:00 - Anonymity 00:01:09 - Automating Steve Jobs 00:04:38 - Isaac Newton's theory of progress 00:06:36 - Grand theory of intelligence 00:10:39 - Seeing scaling early 00:21:04 - AGI Timelines 00:22:54 - What to do in remaining 3 years until AGI 00:26:29 - Influencing the shoggoth with writing 00:30:50 - Human vs artificial intelligence 00:33:52 - Rabbit holes 00:38:48 - Hearing impairment 00:43:00 - Wikipedia editing 00:47:43 - Gwern.net 00:50:20 - Counterfactual careers 00:54:30 - Borges & literature 01:01:32 - Gwern's