Experts' Predictions about the Future of AI

When will AI systems surpass human performance? I don't know, do you? No you don't. Let's see what 352 top AI researchers think. [CORRECTION: I mistakenly stated that the survey was before AlphaGo beat Lee Sedol. The 12 year prediction was for AI to outperform humans *after having only played as many games as a human plays in their lifetime*] The paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf The blogpost which has lots of nice data visualisations: https://aiimpacts.org/2016-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/ The Instrumental Convergence video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZeecOKBus3Q The Negative Side Effects video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqJUIqZNzP8 With thanks to my excellent Patrons at https://www.patreon.com/robertskmiles : Jason Hise Steef Jason Strack Chad Jones Stefan Skiles Jordan Medina Manuel Weichselbaum 1RV34 Scott Worley JJ Hepboin Alex Flint James McCuen Richárd Nagyfi Ville Ahlgren Alec Johnson Simon Strandgaard Joshua Richardson Jonatan R Michael Greve The Guru Of Vision Fabrizio Pisani Alexander Hartvig Nielsen Volodymyr David Tjäder Paul Mason Ben Scanlon Julius Brash Mike Bird Tom O'Connor Gunnar Guðvarðarson Shevis Johnson Erik de Bruijn Robin Green Alexei Vasilkov Maksym Taran Laura Olds Jon Halliday Robert Werner Paul Hobbs Jeroen De Dauw Konsta William Hendley DGJono robertvanduursen Scott Stevens Michael Ore Dmitri Afanasjev Brian Sandberg Einar Ueland Marcel Ward Andrew Weir Taylor Smith Ben Archer Scott McCarthy Kabs Kabs Phil Tendayi Mawushe Gabriel Behm Anne Kohlbrenner Jake Fish Bjorn Nyblad Jussi Männistö Mr Fantastic Matanya Loewenthal Wr4thon Dave Tapley Archy de Berker Kevin Vincent Sanders Marc Pauly Andy Kobre Brian Gillespie Martin Wind Peggy Youell Poker Chen Kees Darko Sperac Paul Moffat Noel Kocheril Jelle Langen Lars Scholz