The Narrow Window to AGI

Key Takeaways

do you buy the framing that given that you have to be two orders of magnitude bigger at every generation if you don't get AGI by gpt7 that can help you catapult an intelligence explosion you're kind of just [ __ ] as far as like much smarter intelligences go and you're kind of stuck with gpt7 level models for a long time gbd4 cost $100 million or whatever you have what the 1B run the 10B run the 100b run all seem very plausible by private company standards you can also Imagine even like a ont run being part of like a national Consortium I want to point out the one we have a lot more jumps and even if those jumps are relatively smaller that's still a pretty Stark Improvement of capability not only that but if you believe claims that GPT 4 is around 1 trillion parameter count the human brain is between 30 and 300 trillion copses and so that's obviously not a onetoone mapping and and we can debate the numbers but it seems pretty plausible that we're below brain scale still