Is your WHAT-IF-ER broken?

Key Takeaways

[Music] So, I got a new vehicle recently, and I'm a researcher at heart. I like digging into stuff as much as I can. Stuff that matters and a whole bunch of stuff that doesn't matter. The learning itself about things is fun for me. So that's what I did with this new truck that I bought. Along the way, I engaged the salesman who agreed with me that this was the best truck on the planet. "It's perfect in every way," he said. "You'll love it," he said. "You'll never have problems with it," he said. Then, as I completed the purchase, he switched his tone just a little bit and said, "You'll definitely need an extended warranty. What if the 10-speed transmission fails right after the manufacturer's warranty expires? He says, "It cost you thousands of dollars." Well, what if the diesel engine has a malfunction? He says, "That would cost you several more thousands," he said. And on and on he went. Well, it's not my first rodeo, so I was more than entertained uh with this this kind of conversation that was going back and forth. I had already planned on getting an extended warranty because it's a fairly new model and uh some of the technology on it is not really all that tested. So anyway, I had a I had a fun time listening with him a flip from what if it's the perfect truck to well what if it's not. His what ifing started to capture my attention. Well, that experience um along with a few others that I've had lately have tuned my attention into listening for my own and other people's what-ifing. So, are you a what if? Are you someone who has a heightened sense of risk and danger? Is your baseline mindset something could go wrong and what if it does? When you're faced with even the slightest uncertainty, is your default mindset, well, what if? And then you fill in the blanks with your eyes darting back and forth and your heart racing and your your jaw tensed. Are you a little hypervigilant sometimes in the area of what if? What if it doesn't work? What if what if I'm late? What if traffic is bad? What if I can't find a parking spot? What if my car breaks down? What if I have the wrong time on my calendar? What if they ask questions that I'm not prepared for? What if the money doesn't come in? What if the costs are too high? What if what if I agree to a job and my new boss is an ogre? What if we make a bad hiring decision? What if? What if? What if? Well, I've noticed that habitual what-ifers is the technical term I've just coined, nearly always default to the side of calamity or failure or difficulty on the side of bad things happening. Maybe it's because they're risk averse. Or maybe they are risk averse because they see risks in the shadows when others see something else. I'm not sure which came first, the negative fear-based whatifery or the risk aversion, but they're definitely related to one another. So, over about, I don't know, about 70 years ago, Henry Marowitz, who was an economist, took a stab at developing a risk aversion scale for people. And then later Conoran and Tverki in some amazing work uh added their own thoughts to the idea of risk aversion and came up with the idea that some of us are are a lot more risk averse than others. So, we've learned that we all sit somewhere on what they have called a risk aversion scale. Whether we are low risktakers, overly cautious and fearful and uncertain, or high risktakers who are a bit impulsive and careless and irresponsible, or more measured or moderate risk-takers, we're harm avoidant but conscientious. We're comfortable with ambiguity. We're fairly confident and we're fairly competent and a little bit courageous. These measured or moderate risk-takers are significantly, in our experience, better leaders and managers and supervisors, maybe even better friends than low risktakers or high risktakers, people who are averse to one end of the or the other of that scale. So a simple risk aversion scale by the way that you can use will ask you to evaluate yourself in six different arenas. Thrill or sensation seeking is the first arena. The second arena is comfort with change. Then there's reward seeking. Then there's self-p protection. Then there's sensibility. And then there's the desire to exert control to make sure that things are always under control. Those are the six areas and in if you take this assessment and there's a link in the comments section or in the the narrated section of this video where you can go and take that that risk assessment. So in that we're asked to agree or to disagree with 24 different statements and then those will yield a simple 0 to 24 total score suggesting which category you may fall into. Some of the statements that you'll see if you go take that assessment are, I can't stand repetitive tasks. Yep, I agreed with that one. I always drive over the speed limit. Yep, I agreed with that one. I thrive in unpredictable work environments. Yeah, I agreed with that one. I would like to to take a risk to make more money. Yep, I agree with that one. Um, I feel comfortable when someone interferes with my plans. Did not agree with that one. There's a whole bunch more of those up to 24 25 different questions. So, give it a go. Again, the link is right down below on that simple assessment. Uh you'll have fun with it. It's quick and it's kind of fun and it's low risk. But, okay, here's my point. Here's what I've learned to do, especially in times of significant challenge and difficulty where my normally moderate to lowrisk aversion mindset will lean then to more toward a high-risk aversion mindset. When those start to happen for me, when I notice that leaning start to happen, I have learned to deliberately answer the what if question differently. Well, what if it's a really good outcome? What if it's faster or easier or better than I thought? What if what if the bad stuff doesn't happen or it's so small that I don't even notice it and then a bunch of good stuff happens on the other side of it? What if this is an opportunity? What if? What if? What if? What if it's good stuff that happens? That's a little bit harder for the brain to do. There's a there's even another more sophisticated way to do this. And that is what if as a direct result of this negative whatifery that I'm engaged in, I get something better than I had expected. What if the thing that happened that I was being negative and risk averse about and it happens but as a result of it things around it even even the thing we were trying to engage in is a lot better. What if the obstacle that we face points us in a direction that's better that we had never thought of? What if we succeed? What if this challenging situation becomes a lot less challenging as we engage with it instead of just imagining it? What if that constraint helps us see something amazing that was invisible to us before? What if it's riskier to avoid the thing than to engage in it? What if it works? What if it really works better than we had imagined? What if it's like we had dreamed or had hoped or created? H most of our work and our life is truly like that. Most of what we experience in life is for most of us most of the time as good as or even better than we thought it would be. Especially if we wait long enough. especially if we stay engaged long enough. But we remember the stuff that was worse than we expected, more keenly, more vividly. And that's not because there's a lot more of the hard stuff in our life, although it kind of feels that way sometimes, but because our threat systems in our brain are much faster and more robust than our reward systems in our brain. And there's another more sophisticated way to do this. What if as a direct result of the negative whatifery that we get something better than we had expected? What if a that thing we had expected is a lot better than what we had thought. What if the obstacle that we face points us in a direction that itself is better? What if we succeed? What if this challenging situation becomes a lot less challenging, especially as we engage with it? What if that constraint that we're facing right now helps us to see something that's amazing? That before the constraint was invisible to us before? What if it's riskier to avoid it than to engage in it? What if it works? What if? Let that go in your mind for a while. So most of our work and our life is kind of like that. Most of what we experience is as good as or better than we thought it would be. Especially if we wait long enough and especially if we stay engaged long enough. We remember the stuff that was worse or harder than we expected more keenly and more vividly. And that's not because somehow our our uh there are more of those events to remember. It does it's not not that at all. It's because our threat systems in our brain are much more much more robust. They're much faster than our reward systems in creating memories and responding. So apart from our psychology, our neurobiology itself sets us up to engage with potential threats much more intensely than with potential rewards. So takes a bit of work to relearn a more realistic and balanced use of our whatifery systems. You could probably start that right now. If you find yourself driving into the what if bad stuff happens ditch, just say, "Yeah, but what if it doesn't happen? What if it goes really well?" And then fill in the detail in your imagination and fill in the blanks and let your imagination have fun with this question. Paint a mental picture. Sit with it for a while. And when it starts to take shape, ask yourself, "What if it goes really well?" what then get past it. So have some fun with this. This optimistic future oriented mindset is a very powerful thing. Give it a try. What if it changes how you think? What if it changes how you plan and how you engage? What if this might be the most pivotal discipline you've learned all year? Huh? Leadership's hard, but don't make it harder than it needs to be. Here's to you. [Applause] [Music]