What the Freakiness of 2025 in AI Tells Us About 2026

It’s probably not possible to satisfactorily condense a 12 month’s worth of weird progress in AI, as well as predictions for the year to come, into one video. But I’m gonna try anyway because it has been a very strange time. http://matsprogram.org/s26-aie My new app! https://lmcouncil.ai Patreon Interview: https://www.patreon.com/posts/robot-in-your-27-146376094 Chapters: 00:00 - Introduction 00:34 - Reasoning Models … and limits 02:54 - A playable world 03:36 - Realism 03:50 - AI Slop gone mainstream 05:03 - DolphinGemma 05:39 - Public Mood 07:34 - AI Enlisted 08:30 - GPT-5 11:05 - Open Weight not out 13:00 - METR Breakout 17:30 - VASA-1 18:28 - Lateral Productivity 20:15 - 1 or 1000 benchmarks needed? 24:54 - Continual Learning + Altman on Superintelligence 28:08 - Automated Information Discovery ft AlphaEvolve Hassabis on Generality: https://x.com/demishassabis/status/2003097405026193809 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PqVbypvxDto Gemini 3: https://storage.googleapis.com/gweb-uniblog-publish-prod/original_images/gemini_3_table_final_HLE_Tools_on.gif Reasoning Trade-offs: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2504.13837 DolphinGemma: https://blog.google/technology/ai/dolphingemma/?s=09 Genie 3: https://deepmind.google/blog/genie-3-a-new-frontier-for-world-models/ METR Time Horizon: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2503.14499 https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/ Flaws: https://x.com/ShashwatGoel7/status/2002369517499105443 https://shash42.substack.com/p/how-to-game-the-metr-plot https://x.com/METR_Evals/status/2002203627377574113 GPT-5 - Altman phd in everything: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/08/14/business/chatgpt-rollout-problems https://simple-bench.com/ AI Slop: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_3vxoJDD9k https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/dec/16/boost-for-artists-in-ai-copyright-battle-as-only-3-per-cent-back-uk-active-opt-out-plan Survey: https://x.com/SearchlightInst/status/2001057144842387920/photo/1 Nvidia Nemotron: h