Full Transcript
Today I'm going to show you an extremely reliable, repetitable, and mechanical scalping strategy. It's called the touch and turn scalper, and it takes advantage of the first 90 minutes of the market open. My name is Carl and I've been trading for over 20 years. already when I was 19 years old competing in the Swedish championship for stock trading. The winner who beat me and who later became my trading mentor, he was using this exact strategy trading Netflix. And in today's video, I will present it the same way that he showed me back in 2010 and the same way that I have taught hundreds of traders since. We've all used it day in and day out to make solid trades for years. I'm going to show you how to trade this touch and turn scalper in just three simple steps. Then after explaining the three steps, I will take that process and I will trade it in the live market so that you know how to apply it. Let's get started. I just love this strategy and most people that I show it to like it as well because it's mechanical, it's straightforward and it doesn't require any complex structure. Step one is to Fibonaccify the opening range. So, first open whatever asset you are trading on a 15minute chart. For nostalgic reasons, I will um use Netflix just as my mentor did back in 2010. It works with any assets. Just make sure it's a 15-minute chart. From there, let the first 15 minutes of the market open pass, allowing that opening candle to completely close. Once that candle has closed, use the Fibonacci retracement drawing tool. So what we want to do here is to draw the Fibonacci levels from the highest price point that we see. So this very top of the week down to the lowest price point that we see, which is the very bottom of this week. And then we extend it into the future. And that's all for step one. I told you it was going to be simple. So we now got three different price levels within the range here. For this strategy though, we're only interested in the 38.2 2 level and the 61.8 level. These are the target profit levels that we will use in this strategy. But for now, this is all you need to do. Just draw it from the high to low range and extend it into the future. Now, let's move on to step number two, which is a crucial step and a step that I have in all of my opening range strategies. The step is to confirm that the opening candle is what we call a liquidity candle. So most likely it is and I will explain why soon. And if it is, we are on to something special. A liquidity candle is any fast aggressive candle moving up or down. The direction doesn't matter. It's quick, it's forceful, and it moves decisively in one direction. But it's more than just a candle. It's actually an emotional event. And that is where the edge is. When traders all around the world see these, their very first instinct is to chase this move afraid that they will miss out on this trading opportunity. And that's exactly what these candles are designed to do, to pull in inexperienced retail traders to create liquidity necessary for the larger institutions to get in and out of their big positions. So this move actually needs to happen for the larger institutions to get in and out and that is why you will see them almost every day. This often involves an aggressive push of the price in one direction to trigger clusters of stop- losses from us retail traders. And those triggered stop- losses will generate the liquidity necessary for the institutions to fill their positions without dramatically moving the price. So without this engineer liquidity, big players couldn't trade in size without negatively impacting their entry and exit levels. The best explanation for this comes from our late Dr. David Paul. >> The best trades occur after the masses have been stopped out. And that's because the big fellas up there. They can't press the Wii button and get in because there's just not enough liquidity there for them to get in in size. So they have to in fact engineer 100,000 guys like you, sir, pull you one way, your stop loss gets hit. that in fact sets off a sea of liquidity for them to get in. >> So yeah, these candles they are engineered and that is why we can also call them manipulation candles. They happen daily allowing those larger institutions to enter and exit their trades. So the most important thing to understand how this touch and turn scalper is taking advantage of this very phenomenon is that whenever you see those candles most of the time the candle will be reversed. And right there, that's the strategy. That is the edge that we are using. Now, just in case there's any doubt in your mind whether or not what you're looking at is or is not a manipulation candle, let me show you an easy way to figure that out. So, what we want to do is to switch to the daily chart of the asset that we're trading and add the average true range indicator. You don't have to make any adjustments to it. Just use the default setting of 14 days. This indicator will give us a numerical value and in this case for Netflix it's three bucks 53. I'll just go ahead and write that down. So what does this number represent? Well, it represents the average range of Netflix for the last 14 days. So, either up 3.53 bucks or down 3.53 bucks on an average day. 3.53. 3.53. Why is it so hard to say? 3.53. So, the opening trading range is one of the most important parameters for us being successful as traders, whether or not you use this touch and turn strategy or something else. And here's what we want to determine. So, back on the 15-minute chart, if the size of the candle that we boxed in is 25% or more of that daily range, then it is a manipulation candle. So, here's the basic math to figure that out. So, we take our 3.53 bucks, right? And we multiply it with 25%, which gets you 88. So if the high of that candle to the low of that candle exceeds 88 cents then it is a manipulation candle. So you'll see that the very low of this candle is 93.24 24 bucks and the very high is 94.7 bucks and that is around 1.5 bucks which is well outside that 88 cent range. So this is definitely a manipulation candle. So that wraps up step number two which also was pretty simple. Right now let's move on to step number three which is to make the perfect trade for this setup. And that's going to be pretty simple, too. So, we're going to go back to that 15inut chart and we are going to move it to a smaller time frame. So, for this strategy, I prefer to use the one minute time frame and that's what I'm going to continue to use in the rest of this demonstration. So, this is how the 15minut opening range looks like on a one minute time frame. So, what we want to do here is to place the limit order at the edge of the range. A limit order is an order that you place to instruct your trading software to enter a trade only when the price reaches that specific level. And as the manipulation candle was negative with a high chance of reversing, I want to place a limit order to go long at the low of the range. If the manipulation candle was positive, I would instead place a limit order to go short and I would place it at the high of the range. The reason that this strategy is called a touch and turn is because what usually happens when we have had a confirmed liquidity candle open is that the price will at least one more time touch the low and then turn. So what we want to do here is placing a long limit order and we are placing it here. And then what we want to do is to set a target profit level to the 38.2 Fibonacci level. So this is a level that the price usually goes back to whenever we have a touch and turn. And then what I want to do is to set the stop-loss level. And I want to set it so that we have a 2:1 riskreward ratio. So this means that we want the target profit to be two times bigger than the stop- loss. And the target profit here is uh 56 cents which means that our stop loss should be uh half of that which is 28 cents which would be uh right here. So our trade is set. We have set the limit order. We have set the target profit and we have set the stop loss. Uh let's see how it plays out. So the price is actually going down to the limit order already in the next minute. So now we are in the long trade. Let's uh fast forward and see what happens. So we're actually touching the floor of the range here. And we're touching it one, two, three, four, five more times before the price eventually turns and we reach our target profit here. And this is a cherry picked. So if we look back, we have this pattern here too. So, we have a positive opening. We use the Fibonacci levels. So, we're entering the short trade here and then we're overextending the ceiling a little bit, but with the stop loss here, we're fine. And then we hit the target profit. So, again, a perfect trade. So, the day before that, uh, we make no trade because we only enter trades in the opposite direction of the direction of the manipulation candle. Let's go to the previous day. So, here we have a positive opening. I'm going to draw up the Fibonacci levels. So, we're placing the short limit order here. We enter the short trade and then we reach the to profit just uh minutes later. So, this is a a classic touch and turn. I wanted to show you a losing trade as well. And I actually had to scroll all the way back to December 15th to find one. So, here's a losing trade. We have the opening range here. Here we enter the trade when the price touches the range floor, but it never turns around. So, we're actually breaking out of the range and we reach the stop-loss here. So, that's like one loss in the whole of December. I mean, this strategy, it works great and it's been working for decades. It has worked so well in fact that I decided to build a trading bot out of it so that I can just let it trade this touch and turn scalper on any index on any stock at any time and I'm going to give it to you. It's free but in return maybe you could scroll down and give this video a thumbs up. I appreciate it. So I'm going to trade this strategy in a live market. But before we do that let's go through these three steps once again make them a little bit clearer. So first we wait for the 15minute candle to close. So in this example it's a red negative opening candle. And when that's done we do the first step which is to Fibonaccriy this opening range into the future so that we get a clear visual of the opening range and the target profit level. So that's step one. Step two is to confirm that this is a liquidity candle. Again, you do that by taking the average true range for the last 14 days and confirming that the range of this candle is at least 25% of that. If we can confirm that, then we move on to the third and last step, which is to set up the perfect trade. So, we do that by going to the one minute time frame and we are placing a limit order. So, we're going to place a limit order that is going long and we're going to place it at the low of the range. And we do that because the manipulation candle was red. So, we're placing the long limit order here. And then we want to set the target profit level to the 38.2 Fibonacci level. And then we set the stop loss to be half of the target profit level. So half of this range. Okay. So now we have set up the perfect trade. We have the limit order level. We have the takerit level. And we have the stop-loss level. And that's the three steps. That's all we need to do. So let me show you what usually happens after 50-minut opening range. The price go up for a bit, maybe for 3 minutes, and then we start going down again. So what usually happens is that the price will do a touch and turn again at the bottom of the range. The price goes down, we touch here and the limit order is executed and then reach the target profit level. And why do we usually reach the target profit level? Why does this strategy have such a high win rate? Well, because there are only four possible scenarios where the price can go every day. And with three of these scenarios, the price will pass through our target profit level. So scenario one is that we push through the range. But before we do that, in most cases, the price will go up to collect strength at least once before pushing through. Scenario two is that we will stay within the range the whole day, which means that price will bounce back and forth within the range, which means that the price will pass through the target profit level. Scenario three is that we have a full reversal of the price and break out of the range on the upside. This still means that price will pass through the target profit level. The only scenario where we actually don't reach the target profit level is if the price breaks through on the first touch of the range. Scenario one is a win. Scenario two is a win. Scenario three is a win. four is a loss. But as these back tests shows, that happens less than 30% of the time. Now, let me show you how to trade this live. It's already 100 p.m., so I missed the uh market open, but I will be back tomorrow to trade this together with you. Good morning, guys. It's about 10 minutes until the market opens. And today, I'm going to trade this touch and turn scalper live. And remember the steps. So, we're first going to what I call Fibonaccify the first 15minute opening range candle. And then we're going to confirm that this candle is a liquidity candle. And third, we're going to dial in the perfect trade. If we don't get this trading opportunity today, I will come back another day. But if you're watching this, it means that I kept it. And spoiler alert, it means that it's happening today. Okay, so the market opens in 2 minutes. I'm going to trade this on Meta today. And let's start by finding out what the average true range is. So, I'm going to go to the daily chart. I'm going to pull up the average true range indicator. The average range is 17.75 bucks. Let's uh let's write that down. And let's go back to the 15minut time frame. So, now the market opens in about five seconds. And here we go. Okay. So, it's opening with a gap downwards. Remember, we are waiting for this candlestick to fully close before we can confirm that it is a liquidity candle. And for it to be a liquidity candle, it has to be 25% or more of that average true range. So, while we wait for this 15-minute candle to close, we could actually already now calculate that. So, the average true range was 17.75 bucks. 25% times that is 4 bucks and 44. So that means that if the candle has a range that is more than four bucks 444, it is a liquidity candle. Okay, it's now 5 seconds until this 15-minute candle closes. The range is exceeding 4.44 bucks. Okay, so the candle closed with a range of 4.64 64 bucks which means that it is uh it's it's confirmed that it is a liquidity candle. Okay. So now let's take the Fibonacci retracement indicator to connect the highest price point that we see and we connect it with the lowest price point that we see and we extend it into the future. So the low is at 662 and the high is at 667. So as you can see here I configured my own Fibonacci drawing tool. So it also displays the stop-loss levels. This makes it even quicker to trade this strategy and you can most likely do this in your trading software as well. But if you want to use the trading software that I use, which is called Pro Time, there is a link to that in the description below. Okay, so this 15-minute liquidity opening range and the Fibonacci levels that we that we just drew, they will be of big significance for the rest of the day. So now the only remaining thing to do is to place the limit order. And as this manipulation candle was positive, we are looking to make a limit order to go short at the top of the range. And we do that on a lower time frame. So we're changing to the one minute time frame. It's just better for control and increased vision. So in per time, you click here to place a limit order. And I'm placing the short order here with target profit at the 61.8 level and the stop loss up here. And now we just wait. Remember, we only want to enter the trade if it's within the 90 minutes of the market open. Okay, so the price actually continues up from here. We're getting closer to the limit order level. Okay, so we just entered the trade here. It's now 10:00 a.m. and let's see if it continues up or if this is a classic touch and turn. Okay, so the price continues up, but we're not even halfway to the stop loss. This is what I want to see. The price is now turning down again. This is very promising. Price is going down. It's going more down now. We just want it to push a couple of cents more and we are at the target profit here. We reached the target profit and our trade is now closed. We are in the money. Time is now 10:28. Okay guys, that's going to conclude today's video. I hope you found some value in this touch and turn scalper. Let me know how it works out for you. I have other strategies in my arsenal as well. Let me know in the comments and I will make another video like this. And I would like to end with one reminder and that is that historic results are no guarantee for future results. So even though this strategy has been proven effective over years and decades, it might stop working. So please evaluate it regularly and please know that this strategy works better in some stocks and worse in others. So you need to evaluate it on the stock that you are trading. Okay guys, take care, trade well and uh thank you for watching. Bye. Okay.