The Only Thing That Can Save Crypto Now..

Over the past couple of weeks, we've spoken about all the reasons why Bitcoin has been underperforming. But I wanted to flip the script today and talk about the one reason why Bitcoin could outperform, the one catalyst which could see us come out of this current rot that we've been in and experience the next leg to the upside on Bitcoin. Because there is one thing in the market that I'm looking at and we actually got the signal yesterday that a major element of this variable was shifting which has historically been one of the biggest triggers for Bitcoin bull runs. And although it might not happen immediately overnight, this in my opinion is going to be one of the catalysts for the next big leg to the upside on Bitcoin. So we're going to discuss that today. I'm also going to give you a market update. We're doing the daily market updates at the moment. So, make sure you smash the notification bell and the subscribe button so you are notified every single day. Uh, today's going to be a quick update. We're going to go through everything you need to know. Uh, big big big data came out yesterday that I want to unpack today. So, let's firstly and also not gang giveaways are going to be later in the video. Let's firstly go through Bitcoin, have a look at what is currently happening. Look, on the hourly, this is kind of encouraging. I do feel like at least in the short term, I've got a slight bias to the upside. So, if you are trading today, I'm probably not looking for shorts. I'd probably be looking for longs. This isn't a very strong bias. This is just my opinion based on the compression that we're seeing. As you can see on the H1 here, if we delete this line at 80K, you can see we're compressing and we've got uh like kind of a classic setup that we speak a lot about in the Miles High Club Paradise in particular where you have your stacked higher lows, you have your stacked highs here, and you have compression between the noodle and a resistance zone. These typically do end up resolving to the upside. So, I do think there is a chance we end up pushing up and actually coming back to retest on the daily um or the H4, this key level at the 80k zone, which you can see if we flick over to the chart here. Um this was basically the range low. You know, this was the level that we didn't want to lose and we lost it. So, I do feel like in the short term, there is a little bit of a mean reversion setup for us to push into this zone. So, traders may want to consider taking that breakout trade. And of course, you know, right now my mindset is to trade Bitcoin adjacently alongside altcoins because, you know, I'm not very comfortable entering altcoins cuz most don't have momentum for longs unless Bitcoin moment momentum looks solid. So, the reason why I'm speaking a lot about Bitcoin in these videos and I I do have one old coin I want to highlight in particular today, but not so much altcoins at the moment is because we're really waiting for the king of the market, you know, to to to make a move. Otherwise, pretty much the best strategy has just been, you know, to short alts given the fact we've been in a downtrend for quite some time now. You know, barring the range low to range high pivot that we did see, you know, that resulted in a decent swing and I did capture a bit of this swing, but um you know, didn't reenter, you know, many longs with size cuz I wasn't comfortable with the trend of the market. So, in terms of macro structure, we're going to go through it later in the video. I am going to talk about uh where Bitcoin could actually bottom. I know a lot of people are wondering like is this the bottom or are we going to potentially see lower my uh spoiler alert before we get into that section later would be I think in the short term I'm more biased towards the upside but in the slightly longer term I am still biased towards the downside until this trend shifts and there are some key levels we need to consider but I think strategically we're we're going to be well placed to deal with that and I'll explain why. Now let's talk about a couple things that I'm looking at. two indicators I've spoken about in the past that I'm keeping my eye on because it's not just the price momentum for Bitcoin that I'll be looking at for a potential shift here in line with the you know big development that we have yes that happened yesterday that I'm going to speak about. Um I'm really paying attention to these indicators in order to work out whether the market is shifting. It's not just price. These are going to tell a bit of the story. So the ETFs have been significantly outflowing. This has been putting pressure on Bitcoin. We did see yesterday the first day of significant inflows. So, I want to see some sustainability here. We haven't really been able to string more than four or five days together. Let's say we we get a week of positive inflows and we can start um we can start considering maybe demand for Bitcoin is back. But I'm just putting this on your radar, something that you should be watching every single day as part of your morning research. The other thing as part of your morning research that you should be monitoring is the Coinbase Bitcoin premium because this is a good measure of demand for spot Bitcoin in the US. And as long as this is red, we're going to be in difficult times for Bitcoin. Like if you want to go back onto the Bitcoin chart and actually look what typically happens when we are in the green zone. So the last time we're in the green zone on the Coinbase index for a significant amount of time was actually from the 6th of September until the 28th of October. And if you look at the 6th of September, it should be over here till the 28th of October. This was a good period in the market. So we saw substantial upside from 108. We saw new highs at 127. Um then obviously, you know, we ended up breaking structure and distributing only after we ended up ticking back into the red zone. And I think the good thing about this index is that it doesn't often pingpong too much. Typically once you enter the green zone, we do see sustained sustained momentum for a decent period of time. I mean even towards the beginning of December, this was what like a 2 3 week period where it was green again and that resulted in relief across markets um towards the end of the year where we did have this big pushup. So these pushes to the upside are typically driven by US spot buying. So as long as you are seeing periods in the market like at the moment where it's extreme red, you know, you're going to just be a fighting against the momentum. So it's not only price action we can look at, we also need to look at the flows to see whether the market is interested in in beating Bitcoin and um look at whether there is a spot premium. So until that shifts, I don't think there'll be a bigger shift to the market, but that shift is likely going to be triggered by what we're going to speak about later in the video. Now, on the altcoin front, there are a few things that are moving. Some of the perplexes are moving. I think the main one to talk about though is Hyperlid. This has been on an absolute run. Um, I actually did mention this in the show the other day on the pullback and this was a pretty nice setup on the H4 Noodle and also the Daily Noodle. We had a pretty clean tag. So, um, that indicator played out with pretty much a perfect breakout that I did share on that show. So, well done, um, for anyone that did get into the trade on the pullback. I know Paradise has been trading this in the Discord. insane trade. Congratulations to Paradise. This was absolutely insane. Um I think he went in with decent size here as well. 837% on Hyperl and you know he kept everyone uh up to date throughout the entire duration of the trade. So if you're in the Miles High Club in Paradise's outlook uh and setups channel, he posts all of his charts and in the setups channel he actually walks you through the trade. You can see I'm going back to find the original setup which was here and obviously since then um it's been crazy and he posts every single update. So well done to Paradise. This was a great trade and a pretty textbook setup. Um, and a very clean retest as well. I think with assets like this, cuz I'm getting some questions about, oh, is it too late, you know, to buy hype now? Um, I think when an asset significantly outperforms during a downturn, it does give you a signal that it's strong and it's likely going to outperform for a for a period of time. However, you have to be wary buying in after that short-term outperformance because what does happen is if momentum starts to stall because the entire market is under pressure, it could end up coming back down to par. So, although there's been positive announcements, although the sentiment is really strong and although people are, you know, clearly speaking positively about the coin right now, and I'm, you know, a long-term bull, I obviously hold liquid as one of my bigger altcoin positions in my core portfolio, as I've said many times. Um and and me and Fabian also were able to add closer to this uh $21 zone, although not as much as I would like. Um you know, although I'm bullish on it, I'm still wary in the shorter term that um you know, you don't want to be buying into uh significant outperformance in a downtrending market overall because sometimes these tokens do come back down to par. So definitely in terms of short-term trading, you should be moving down the time frames and that's how Paradise spotted the trade and looking at what is exhibiting momentum on the lower time frames. That is definitely something you you want to look at because that can um tell you what assets are going to give you the strongest bounces once the market recovers. But just don't mistake that for a sustained bounce over, you know, the following 3, four, 5 weeks because often the the price can retrace a little bit. I just wanted to mention that in case anyone wants to FOMO in now given the fact, you know, I'm bullish longer term. Clearly any dip is an opportunity on hype. So if you want to add add on dips, I think that is a a very solid rule. Um going forward, there are a few other assets which I'll probably talk about in a future video. I might do a more altcoin portfoliobased video at some point. There are a few assets I'm looking at. Uh Ze hasn't given me a confirm entry in the zone I was interested in at $300, but what we actually might be looking at here on Ze is a flip. Like I'm still bullish um in this coin as one of the leading privacy coins longer term. But because it's starting to show signs of breaking down and losing its range, I want to see it at least get back up and and show a response within the range for me to potentially consider this a range low deviation play and and play the swing from 300 back to range high. So that's something I am monitoring. Obviously, if you want to mark out some deeper levels, you have this uh wick low here at 184. You know, could chop in this range for a little bit. So let's see. You know, could just be deviation. It could come back fairly quickly. So, all right. Title of the video is probably going to be something like the the one thing I'm watching or the one thing that could, you know, shift Bitcoin um uh momentum from bearish to positive. And this uh this one thing I think has been uh part of my foundation fundamentally for markets for quite some time and has definitely been working against us in recent times. But there is one signal we got yesterday that this could be shifting. So, going to get into that right now. Before I get into that, I'm just going to um pick five winners for the NY gang. So, Pier, you win. Email below. Let them know uh that you have notifications on. Send a screenshot and we will uh pay you $100. Scorp, you win as well. Um Muhammad, you win. Uh andrew, you win. Uh wait, let's do one more so it gets up to five. Mosy, you win as well. Someone here said the video's too is too long. Um well, today's video is going to be a bit shorter. I'm trying to condense things for you, but I really think yesterday's video had a lot of alfer in it. If you haven't watched it, watch it because I talk about all coins here. Like this video is all about portfolio management, some of the changes that I made, how you can actually survive this period and the immediate thing that I would do right now to your portfolio if you want to not not only survive this period but then also thrive longer term. Go and watch this video if you haven't already. Uh but today we're going to talk about something different, which is this. So, we saw the uh ISM index, which is the manufacturing PMI, surging, and this was actually the biggest reading that we've seen since 2022, signaling the first ISM expansion in the past 12 months. You can see that new orders are up 9.7%, production is up 5.2%. Which shows that the business cycle or the economy from a manufacturing point of view is now growing. Now, for quite some time, for the past year, this has been under pressure and due to that, um, economic expansion hasn't been as fast as you may think, even though we've had rates coming down and even though we've had stock markets going up. So, a lot of the stock market gains have been driven by the MAG 7. A lot of uh those gains have also been driven by the uh increasing uh Fed balance sheet. What we have not seen though is the manufacturing PMI expanding. And this is one of the things that historically has been most linked to Bitcoin bull runs. You can see in 2012, the bottom of the ISM to the top of the ISM pretty much marked the exact run on Bitcoin. In 2015, very similar thing. The bottom marked the local bottom on Bitcoin. The top lined up exactly with the top on Bitcoin. In 2020 to 2021, the exact same thing occurred. the top was almost exactly you know apart from the double top that we did see but actually the ISM also double topped and then the market also started its bull run after the bottom in ISM. What you're not seeing in the chart here because this is a slightly outdated chart is that there is a big spike that is currently happening on ISM that just uh kicked off yesterday with this reading. So what you can actually see as well is that when the ISM flicks from negative 50 to positive 50 territory. You can see this exhibited through the shifts from the red area to the green area. Typically, these shifts do result in pretty expansive legs for Bitcoin. So, you can see the shift Bitcoin run shift in 2020 and to 2021 big Bitcoin run. And this is the first shift. I mean, we did see a a shorterterm reading where Bitcoin actually did run, but it didn't last. This is the first big shift that we've actually seen since then. And going back, it's the biggest one since 2021. Um although the caveat I'm going to give now because you might be thinking, "Oh Mars, what do you mean? Is Bitcoin just going to, you know, start pumping right now? It's it's very tempting to make that argument, but the reality is we do want to see a sustained trend here. We don't want this to be an outlier reading." And I do believe that's why the market isn't running on this news. Obviously, it's up a little bit on the day. Um obviously that looks bearish. That's cuz I'm on the daily chart. You can see it is up on the day technically. But the reason the market isn't getting too excited over this news yet is because we need multiple consecutive readings because there have been times where we've ticked green technically, but it hasn't been a lasting trend. The thing that you have to understand is that the manufacturing index is one of the biggest trackers of the overall business cycle and that is the indicator that Bitcoin is most linked to. Yes, Bitcoin is extremely linked to global liquidity. Yes, it's extremely linked to economic expansion. But what it's most linked to specifically is is US business cycle. So obviously there are many things um that factor into that and there are many different measures like you could technically make uh equity prices a measure for the business cycle and Bitcoin has historically followed risk on assets recently for reasons we've discussed it has started to diverge. Um however even more than equities it's more so linked to ISM. So it doesn't necessarily guarantee that in the short term you'll see a big move. But what it does suggest is that if this is a shift, this is one of the things in the market that has historically voted very well for Bitcoin in terms of liquidity conditions. Now I know, you know, a lot of people have been memeing it online and I think the reason it gets me'd is because um people just assume this is going to be an instant thing like oh you see a reading over 50 you get a huge Bitcoin pump. That's not the case. The case is what you could see in front of you that over time as liquidity expands, Bitcoin theoretically tracks this liquidity. And this is actually not the ISM. This is the global liquidity index. Now, and you can see that there are periods where Bitcoin will decorrelate. Like in 2017, it decorrelated. 2019 it decorrelated. In 2022, it decorrelated, but it always recorrelates. Like Bitcoin is a liquidity sponge. It's an extremely liquidity sensitive asset. I think the sentiment has just gotten worse recently because gold has been performing so well on very specific macro factors like central banks buying like you know China clearly shifting capital into gold whilst Bitcoin has had its own uh supply headwinds and and constraints which have resulted in it underperforming and it's kind of affected the narrative and the momentum in the shorter term which is clearly something we need to monitor and I've given you some of the tools that you can use um beyond price action to monitor that in today's video but what you have to keep in mind is that these disconnects are normal. Like typically even though these disconnects will happen for you know a matter of months they will recorrelate within the year and that's something we've seen time and time again as Ral Pal points out like this happened in 2015 and 2020. I'm still extremely bullish as bit um in Bitcoin as an asset. We're just dealing right now with some of the unwind and some of the uncertainty being priced into the market. It needs to find a flaw. It certainly needs to get momentum back. Once that happens, it could have a much better backdrop in terms of the business cycle and and that could actually set Bitcoin up for a more sustained run. When is that going to happen? Well, that that also depends on on where Bitcoin bottoms. So, maybe we could look at some of the um some of the places that Bitcoin could bottom in the meantime. I do like this chart here. It talks about, you know, the likely bottom zone for Bitcoin. It actually lines up with my macro chart as well. So, you can see here uh the 52 to 72K zone is the likely bottom zone. If you actually draw out the uh lines here based on the horizontal support and and um resistance zones, you can see 52 is major support. You have major support as well at 74K. That level was basically just tagged. And then you have your mid-range pivot point at 64K. This is the level that uh Paradise has also highlighted on the high time frames as the zone of interest for him. Like extremely li extremely high likelihood, sorry, that we bottom within this zone in my opinion. Now, it doesn't necessarily mean, you know, we need to come down and sweep the bottom of that zone. I think that is kind of unlikely. I think more so we will make a little push up, potentially sweep into this zone, and then what you'd be looking for is a momentum shift in um the demand for Bitcoin to see if real demand steps in. There are other tools you can use to assert this. At the time, you can look at Delta. You can see where the buyers are aggressively positioning. We did see a fair bit of support at 75K, so that level could also hold for now. Um, but you want to see more importantly the market reaction to this region. High likelihood this is the region Bitcoin bottoms in. Of course, you know, we could call a bottom retroactively if we do see a strong push to the upside if this 74 uh level holds and we do see a um a a response on Bitcoin. But the problem with this is that we start we are still in a downtrend. So, I think calling I mean before we've even had a breakout, a a local breakout back to 81 to 82K, calling a bottom right now is just way too premature. And I'm trying to be really level-headed with how I approach the market cuz I'd love, you know, to just come on and give hopemium so we can all feel great like everything's going to pump. But, um, I'm just trying to be realistic and really track the momentum of the market. And that's what why I'm doing the daily shows again cuz I want to take you through that journey of taking new information into account. Um, you know, trading live and giving you the setups on every single show and then building that story. That's why I also think it's important, you know, to watch every show so you could see that thought process happen in real time. Now, until we start thinking, uh, you know, about a deeper correction. Keep in mind, there's still very strong support at 74K. Cowan also pointed this out. We're likely to see a reaction. We're already seeing a reaction. You already know that my bias in in the shorter term is if we flip this um this level here, we could see a little bit of a squeeze to the upside. So, I wouldn't be panicking right now. What I would be doing, however, is using this time and potentially using this bounce or a bit of relief that we're seeing in the markets at the moment, which is also resulting into positive inflows to rebalance your portfolio. Make sure you're in the quality stuff. Make sure you're in assets that you believe in. And in yesterday's video, I won't repeat all my points from yesterday. I go over the exact framework for that and exactly how I'm thinking of my portfolio and positioning in this market. So, go and watch that video. I'll also link it in the description below if you want uh to go through that with me cuz I help you guys rebalance your portfolios and make sure you're using this period to your advantage. And I'll keep the daily updates to make sure you're in the loop. See you in the next one. Peace.