Polymarket Is Pricing a Macro Shock

Bankless · Intermediate ·🔢 Mathematical Foundations ·2mo ago

About this lesson

Two @polymarket markets are telling the same macro story: No Fed rate cuts probability in 2026 is now around 70%. Iran peace deal by July 31 sits at just 55%. If Hormuz stays closed, oil could rip to $120, $140, maybe even $180. Stagflation is back on the menu.

Original Description

Two @polymarket markets are telling the same macro story: No Fed rate cuts probability in 2026 is now around 70%. Iran peace deal by July 31 sits at just 55%. If Hormuz stays closed, oil could rip to $120, $140, maybe even $180. Stagflation is back on the menu.

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