June Crash Incoming? 💰😳💰

With the latest crypto crash hitting just yesterday, Bitcoin hitting a triple bottom and a big flush out dropping Micro Strategy to new cycle lows. The big question is what happens next? Are we about to flush down to new cycle lows or was the floor hit for June and the July rally is about to begin? Well, in this video, I'll be taking a look at the latest price action, the key levels to watch, and what Bitcoin has done at this point in the previous market cycles, and why the next Fed meeting in July could very well be a rate hike. Okay, so let's jump in with the latest price action and the key level I'm looking at to reenter the crypto market. Okay, so we're jumping in with Bitcoin USD on the weekly. And what do we see? Well, this time around, more weakness has come into the market. Bitcoin flushed again just yesterday. This time setting a triple bottom. First time being set week, 2nd of February. It then tested it in June. And normally with a double bottom, you really want to see a rally out of it. If it's now come down and hit this line for a third time, this is not a good sign and it's a sign of weakness. And it just means that maybe the next hit, this could be breaking the floor and it will flush down. And the problem is when a lot of people are now starting to believe in this crypto winter and Bitcoin is hovering really close to these cycle lows here, a lot of people are going to be setting their stops. And the problem is if this breaks all the stops get triggered and this is how you get these vertical moves down. Next stop probably testing 50,000. a weakness certainly in the crypto market and as mentioned when it came to Micro Strategy a major flush out just yesterday breaking below 100 and if you remember the peak was up here and if we just take a measured move this is some serious crypto winter damage happening to Micro Strategy. So, past 80% was the last bounce and this time flushed all the way down to about 83% down. A lot of pain going on there. Now just flipping to Bitcoin on the monthly because we get to see more of the big picture overview and you can clearly see the yearly cycles of busts and booms and busts booms and busts booms and this latest bust cycle low being here, here, and here. So we can probably estimate when the next one is going to be. So normally it's about 12 months off the peak. 12 months off the peak. pretty much this has followed the exact same pattern. So if this was the case, we can probably make a prediction that 12 months from the peak is going to be around about October. So I'd be setting the flag about there. So, we're moving into the very very end game of this crypto winter where as bad as it is and as the bigger damage being done to your portfolio, we're moving into the very very best time to buy. If you could have bought anywhere around here, even in this latest crash, it really wouldn't matter. Same for every cycle. You can buy, you don't actually have to buy at the very bottom. anywhere in this vicinity and you are miles higher even in the worst crashes. And this is likely going to be the same again. If you just buy anywhere around here, 2 years from now, even in a major crash, I think historically it's going to turn out well. Now, just flipping back to the weekly and we're going to add in the 200W week moving average because if you can buy below this then historically it's been pretty much quids in. Excellent time to buy below the 200 week. So, it's just breaching below right now. And then, as promised, the key figure I'm looking at is the Bitcoin realized price. And the realized price is basically the average cost basis for the entire marketplace. And normally in crypto winters it does come below that and that sits at around 53 54,000. So dropping below 53. So between this 50 and 53 is going to be a major level for me to enter back into the market. Now whether that flushes out over the next week in the absolute short term, no one knows where this beast is going to go or is it just going to go sideways for a couple of months before the big flush out. Nobody actually knows. But that is the major level for me that I'm keeping my eye on. Now, just taking a look at the four-year cycle as we now move into this new era here being shown by purple and this was the previous three cycles. Now, just something to note, this is the cycle bottom. So, this chart is constantly refreshing trying to find the cycle low. As you can see, it reset to number one here. If this does go lower, the chart will reset. So, this doesn't mean that this is the absolute bottom. In fact, in the prior three cycles, as you can see, as we get into this final part, there is normally another leg down. So, this, if there is another leg down, will reset back to one. So, the fact that it's at number one, is not what I'm really looking at. What I'm looking at is the trend of the previous three cycles. So, we can definitely see at this point in the previous cycles, there has been a downturn, a downturn, and a flush out. pretty much similar to what we've seen. Now, if it's like this cycle, there could still be some further downside over the next week or two, but there's probably some kind of July rally coming our way. And then not a lot of exciting action for the next few months before we get into the ultimate endgame. And this is what everyone is questioning. Will there be another final flush out to mark the ultimate cycle bottom? Now, one of the hardest parts of the 4-year cycle is that even if you know that it predictably tops at a certain point, it's so simple that the vast majority of people still don't sell. And similar to the bottom, even though in the previous three cycles, it's bottomed around the exact same time. It's a bit of a dilemma or paradox that it's really, really simple, but it's also really, really difficult. It's really simple because you literally just turn off your computer when it gets around that time, just buy in. It's baby baby simple, but then it's super super difficult because everybody's second-guessing and saying, "Well, if everybody knows it's going to happen, then it's not going to happen." So, this is why this period here is the ultimate paradox. It's super baby simple, and it's also incredibly difficult. That is the nature of this 4-year cycle to date. And then just finishing up a bit of concerning information coming from the next Fed meeting. So the next Fed meeting is coming end of July and we're about to go into July just next week. And the current rate is between 3 and 1 half to 3.75. And it's predicted that not only are they just going to hold rates or as we all want them to lower rates, it's now a 34% chance that there's going to be a rate hike just next month. So obviously this is not good for risk assets. Risk assets like the opposite. So could this be setting up the final flush out in Q4? just something to be on the radar. So, in summary, the crypto market is certainly struggling. It's hit it's recently hit this triple bottom, and the more it bangs onto this line, the more likely it's going to break. If it breaks, we certainly could be headed down to this $50,000 level. And a key level for me is dropping below 53,000. and it's micro strategy that I'm keeping a very close eye on because if Bitcoin hits $50,000, this will be my trigger to re-enter the crypto market.