ValueAlpha: Agreement-Gated Stress Testing of LLM-Judged Investment Rationales Before Returns Are Observable

arXiv:2604.25224v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Long-horizon investment decisions create a pre-realization evaluation problem: realized returns are the eventual arbiter of investment quality, but they arrive too late and are too noisy to guide many model-development and governance decisions. LLM judges offer a tempting substitute for pre-deployment evaluation of AI-finance systems, but unvalidated judges may reward verbosity, confidence, or rubric mimicry rather than financial judgment. This pap