Uncertainty Propagation in LLM-Based Systems

📰 ArXiv cs.AI

Learn to propagate uncertainty in LLM-based systems to improve reliability and trustworthiness

advanced Published 28 Apr 2026
Action Steps
  1. Identify sources of uncertainty in LLM-based systems using techniques like Monte Carlo dropout
  2. Analyze how uncertainty is transformed across model internals and workflow stages
  3. Implement uncertainty propagation methods, such as Bayesian neural networks or ensemble methods, to quantify and manage uncertainty
  4. Evaluate the impact of uncertainty propagation on system performance and reliability using metrics like expected calibration error
  5. Develop strategies to mitigate the effects of uncertainty propagation, such as using uncertainty-aware loss functions or regularization techniques
Who Needs to Know This

Data scientists and AI engineers working with LLMs can benefit from understanding uncertainty propagation to develop more robust systems

Key Insight

💡 Uncertainty propagation is crucial for developing trustworthy LLM-based systems, as early errors can propagate and affect overall system performance

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🚀 Improve LLM-based system reliability by propagating uncertainty across boundaries! 🤖

Key Takeaways

Learn to propagate uncertainty in LLM-based systems to improve reliability and trustworthiness

Full Article

Title: Uncertainty Propagation in LLM-Based Systems

Abstract:
arXiv:2604.23505v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Uncertainty in large language model (LLM)-based systems is often studied at the level of a single model output, yet deployed LLM applications are compound systems in which uncertainty is transformed and reused across model internals, workflow stages, component boundaries, persistent state, and human or organisational processes. Without principled treatment of how uncertainty is carried and reused across these boundaries, early errors can propagat
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