The Countdown

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USMCA's mandatory July 1 review is priced by markets as a formality. Three colliding forces make clean extension to 2042 the least likely outcome. In fifty-two days, the Free Trade Commission convenes to decide whether the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement extends to 2042 or enters a decade of annual reviews ending in termination. Article 34.7 requires all three parties to confirm in writing by July 1, 2026. Markets are pricing clean extension. They are wrong. Three

Published 10 May 2026

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USMCA's mandatory July 1 review is priced by markets as a formality. Three colliding forces make clean extension to 2042 the least likely outcome. In fifty-two days, the Free Trade Commission convenes to decide whether the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement extends to 2042 or enters a decade of annual reviews ending in termination. Article 34.7 requires all three parties to confirm in writing by July 1, 2026. Markets are pricing clean extension. They are wrong. Three
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