PolySwarm: A Multi-Agent Large Language Model Framework for Prediction Market Trading and Latency Arbitrage
📰 ArXiv cs.AI
PolySwarm is a multi-agent LLM framework for prediction market trading and latency arbitrage
Action Steps
- Deploy a swarm of diverse LLM personas to evaluate binary outcome markets
- Aggregate individual probability estimates through confidence-weighted Bayesian combination
- Utilize swarm consensus with market-implied probabilities for prediction market trading and latency arbitrage
- Evaluate the performance of PolySwarm on decentralized platforms such as Polymarket
Who Needs to Know This
AI engineers and researchers on a team can benefit from PolySwarm's novel approach to aggregating probability estimates, while traders and financial analysts can utilize the framework for making informed decisions
Key Insight
💡 PolySwarm's use of a swarm of diverse LLM personas can improve the accuracy of probability estimates in prediction markets
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🤖 PolySwarm: a multi-agent LLM framework for prediction market trading & latency arbitrage
Key Takeaways
PolySwarm is a multi-agent LLM framework for prediction market trading and latency arbitrage
Full Article
Title: PolySwarm: A Multi-Agent Large Language Model Framework for Prediction Market Trading and Latency Arbitrage
Abstract:
arXiv:2604.03888v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This paper presents PolySwarm, a novel multi-agent large language model (LLM) framework designed for real-time prediction market trading and latency arbitrage on decentralized platforms such as Polymarket. PolySwarm deploys a swarm of 50 diverse LLM personas that concurrently evaluate binary outcome markets, aggregating individual probability estimates through confidence-weighted Bayesian combination of swarm consensus with market-implied probabili
Abstract:
arXiv:2604.03888v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This paper presents PolySwarm, a novel multi-agent large language model (LLM) framework designed for real-time prediction market trading and latency arbitrage on decentralized platforms such as Polymarket. PolySwarm deploys a swarm of 50 diverse LLM personas that concurrently evaluate binary outcome markets, aggregating individual probability estimates through confidence-weighted Bayesian combination of swarm consensus with market-implied probabili
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