PolyBench: Benchmarking LLM Forecasting and Trading Capabilities on Live Prediction Market Data

arXiv:2604.14199v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predicting real-world events from live market signals demands systems that fuse qualitative news with quantitative order-book dynamics under strict temporal discipline -- a challenge existing benchmarks fail to capture. We present \textbf{PolyBench}, a multimodal benchmark derived from Polymarket that records point-in-time cross-sections of 38,666 binary prediction markets spanning 4,997 events, synchronously coupling each snapshot with a Central