ICML 2026 acceptance threshold vs. What we have seen in Neurips 2025 [D]

After the rebuttals our paper has a borderline average score of 3.75. I thought the odds weren't very bad (given what Copilot says) until I saw last year's neurips results: https://blog.neurips.cc/2025/09/30/reflections-on-the-2025-review-process-from-the-program-committee-chairs/ According to the plot here, only \~10% of such