I Priced 18 Million SPY Put Spreads Across 8 Years. Every Bucket Was -EV. Every Year Made Money.

Every put credit spread permutation on SPY from 2018-04-16 to 2026-04-02 priced with SVI+Black-Scholes, joined with actual spot at expiry. 18.3M rows. Average theoretical EV is -$0.48. Average realized P&L is +$0.58. The gap is the VRP.