Aligning Data-Driven Predictors with Allocation: A Decision-Focused Approach to Survival Analysis

arXiv:2606.02671v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Machine learning predictors have become essential tools for guiding automated decision making. However, a major misalignment persists: predictive models are typically optimized in terms of standard statistical metrics in isolation from the algorithmic tasks they inform. We highlight this incongruity in the high-stakes domain of organ allocation by demonstrating that any algorithm relying on (even highly accurate) survival predictors optimized for